After Andy Burnham expressed interest in entering the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer found himself in a dilemma with limited favorable options.
Allowing Burnham to stand the election risked fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge, as only MPs are eligible for the leadership position. Moreover, there was the added concern of facing an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amidst already challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May. Poor results in these elections could pose a significant threat to Starmer, with contenders like Burnham eyeing an opportunity to seize leadership.
The alternative, as chosen by the Prime Minister, was to prevent Burnham from running, citing the financial burden on taxpayers and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming May elections. While this move eliminated an immediate threat, it could have adverse long-term consequences.
Following the news, numerous MPs expressed discontent, accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a setup. Burnham could potentially become a symbol for disgruntled backbenchers who perceive the decision as excessive control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already exhibited rebellious tendencies, influencing the government to reverse decisions, and further agitation could complicate Starmer’s position.
Before the decision was finalized, a minister suggested privately that allowing Burnham to run would have been a stronger move, implying that blocking him might make Starmer appear weaker.
No10 has actively criticized Wes Streeting, a potential leadership contender, and now prevented Burnham from returning to Westminster. Opinions vary on whether these actions demonstrate strength or weakness, but the prevailing sentiment leans towards the latter.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal disputes that the public finds tiresome. However, until Starmer can improve Labour’s declining poll ratings, speculations about his future are likely to persist.
While Burnham has his critics, some argue that his pursuit of personal ambitions may overshadow the interests of Greater Manchester residents who elected him recently. Despite unsuccessful bids for Labour leadership in the past, he remains a popular figure, earning the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour secured a comfortable victory in Gorton in 2024, the party faces a challenge to retain it as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset, and the Greens attract left-leaning voters. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking his candidacy on the election outcome.
The stakes are high for Labour in the upcoming by-election, and failure to secure a win could have severe consequences.
