The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its 2026 home sales forecast downward for the third time this year, as September data indicates a decrease in sales nationwide. Initially anticipating a slight increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now projects a 5.2% decline in home transactions compared to the previous year. This revision follows similar adjustments made in April and July.
The surge in oil prices since spring has had a ripple effect on bond yields and fixed mortgage rates, impacting the housing market, according to CREA. While there was a slight uptick in monthly activity over the summer, CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart attributes the ongoing increase in oil prices and concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada to dampening buyer enthusiasm in the latter part of the year.
Cathcart noted the persisting challenges stemming from U.S. tariffs and rising lending rates, emphasizing the prevailing uncertainty that may deter many from entering the market this fall. Real estate firm Royal LePage echoed similar sentiments, with President and CEO Phil Soper highlighting the cautious approach of potential buyers amidst global economic uncertainties.
September witnessed a decline in home sales, with figures down by 2.3% compared to August and 7.7% compared to the same month last year. Additionally, newly listed properties decreased by 1.8% on a month-over-month basis, continuing a trend of declining new supply since September 2025, as reported by CREA.
The national average home price stood at $666,538, marking a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. While markets in Vancouver and Toronto exhibited weakness in September, regions like the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast, previously robust, have started to show signs of cooling down.
Looking ahead, CREA anticipates a rebound in home sales in 2027, under the assumption of limited rate adjustments by the Bank of Canada and increased borrower confidence in lending rates. The association projects a 4.4% increase in home sales for the following year.
